# Research ### **Working Papers** [**Higher-Order Perturbation in Sequence Space: the Certainty Correspondence**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2026-07/Higher_order_sequence_space.pdf) (with Adrien Auclert, Rodolfo Rigato, and Matthew Rognlie) *Updated: July 2026* [**New-Keynesian Economics with Household and Firm Heterogeneity**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2025-12/wars.pdf) (with Thomas Winberry, Adrien Auclert, and Matthew Rognlie) *Updated: December 2025* Prepared for the *Journal of Economic Literature* [**The Macroeconomics of Tariff Shocks**](https://shade-econ.github.io/tariff_shocks.pdf?v=1) (with Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie) *Updated: December 2025* \[[Old April 2025 version](https://shade-econ.github.io/tariff_shocks_apr25.pdf)\]\[[Replication Code](https://github.com/shade-econ/tariff-shocks)\] [**Determinacy and Large-Scale Solutions in the Sequence Space**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2026-01/determinacy_sequence_space.pdf) (with Adrien Auclert, Evan Majic, and Matthew Rognlie) *Updated: December 2025* Prepared for *JPE Macro* Special Issue on Economic Dynamics, Uncertainty, and Computation \[supersedes "[Determinacy and Existence in the Sequence Space](/file_url/147)"\] [**Disaggregated Economic Accounts**](https://www.disaggregatedaccounts.com/assets/paper/DEA.pdf) (with Asger Andersen, Kilian Huber, Niels Johannesen, and Emil Toft Vestergaard) *Updated: December 2025* Accepted at *Quarterly Journal of Economics* \[[Website](https://www.disaggregatedaccounts.com)\] [**The Race Between Asset Supply and Asset Demand**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2025-11/Jackson%20Hole%20AMRS.pdf) (with Adrien Auclert, Hannes Malmberg, and Matthew Rognlie) *Updated: November 2025* Prepared for the 2025 Jackson Hole Symposium [**The Saving Glut of the Rich**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2025-07/MSS_SGR_July242025.pdf) (with Atif Mian and Amir Sufi) *Updated: July 2025* Revise and Resubmit at *Review of Economic Studies* \[[Old 2021 version](/file_url/119)\] [**Optimal Long-Run Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents**](/file_url/156) (with Adrien Auclert, Michael Cai, and Matthew Rognlie) *Updated: August 2024* [**Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2025-07/ha_oe.pdf) (with Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Martin Souchier) *Updated: August 2024* Revise and Resubmit at *American Economic Review* [**When do Endogenous Portfolios Matter for HANK?**](/file_url/155) (with Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Tomas Tapak) *Updated: July 2024* [**Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated HANK Model**](/file_url/111) (with Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie) *Updated: March 2020* Revise and Resubmit at *American Economic Review* [**Consumption, Savings, and the Distribution of Permanent Income**](/file_url/98) *Updated: June 2019* Revise and Resubmit at *Econometrica* ### **Publications** [**A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Deficits**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2025-07/A%20Goldilocks%20Theory%20of%20Fiscal%20Deficits.pdf) (with Atif Mian and Amir Sufi) *Updated: July 2025* Accepted at *American Economic Review* [**Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents**](https://straub.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7751/files/2025-04/annual_review_hank.pdf) (with Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie) *Annual Review of Economics,* Vol. 17, 2025 \[[Published Version](https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-091624-044646)\] \[[Code at GitHub](https://github.com/shade-econ/annual-review)\] [**A Dynamic Theory of Lending Standards**](/file_url/130) (with Jonathan Parker and Michael Fishman) *Review of Financial Studies,* 37 (8), 2024: 2355-2402 \[[Published Version](https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article/37/8/2355/7623094)\] \[[Replication Code](https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/J9NDHA)\] [**The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross**](/file_url/146) (with Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie) *Journal of Political Economy,* 132 (12), 2024 \[[Published Version](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/732531)\] \[[Old 2017 version](/file_url/112)\] \[[Code at GitHub](https://github.com/shade-econ/ikc)\] [**Managing an Energy Shock: Fiscal and Monetary Policy**](/file_url/143) (with Adrien Auclert, Hugo Monnery, and Matthew Rognlie) *Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics: Implications for Monetary Policy,* edited by Sofía Bauducco, Andrés Fernández, and Giovanni L. Violante, Santiago, Chile, pp. 39-108, November 2024 \[[Published version](https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/6553368/Managing+an+Energy+Shock+Fiscal+and+Monetary+Policy+-+SBC+Vol+30.pdf/7f539848-0b45-baa1-fbc3-c2965ed8378c?t=1730750451726)\] [**New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves**](/file_url/133) (with Adrien Auclert, Rodolfo Rigato, and Matthew Rognlie) *Quarterly Journal of Economics,* 139 (1), 2024: 121-186 \[[Published Version](https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/139/1/121/7260872)\] \[[Code at GitHub](https://github.com/shade-econ/new-old-phillips-curves)\] \[[Replication Kit](/file_url/153)\] [**Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches**](/file_url/144) (with Robert Ulbricht) *Review of Economic Studies,* 91 (5), 2024: 3085–3115 \[[Published Version](https://academic.oup.com/restud/article-abstract/91/5/3085/7455174)\] \[[Replication Kit](https://zenodo.org/records/10015766)\] [**The Trickling Up of Excess Savings**](/file_url/149) (with Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie) *AEA Papers and Proceedings,* 113, 2023: 70-75 \[[Published Version](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pandp.20231027)\] \[[Code at GitHub](https://github.com/shade-econ/trickling-up/)\] [**Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies**](/file_url/132) (with Rishabh Aggarwal, Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie) *NBER Macroeconomics Annual* 2023, Vol. 37 \[[Published Version](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/723586)\] \[[Replication Kit](/file_url/150)\] [**Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?**](/file_url/135) (with Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, and Iván Werning) *American Economic Review*, 112 (5), 2022: 1437-74 \[[Working Paper](/file_url/131)\] \[[Slides](/file_url/145)\] [**Monetary Policy in Times of Structural Reallocation**](/file_url/129) (with Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, and Iván Werning) *Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium*, 2021 [**What explains the decline in r\*? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts**](/file_url/128) (with Atif Mian and Amir Sufi) *Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium*, 2021 \[[Replication Kit](https://amirsufi.net/data-and-appendices/JH_Replicationkit.zip)\] [**Indebted Demand**](/file_url/137) (with Atif Mian and Amir Sufi) *Quarterly Journal of Economics*, 136 (4), 2021: 2243-2307 \[[Working Paper](/file_url/110)\] \[[Slides](/file_url/116)\] \[[Replication Kit](/file_url/122)\] \[[Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ea_g_9MRJI)\] [**Using the Sequence-Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous-Agent Models**](/file_url/138) (with Adrien Auclert, Bence Bardóczy, and Matthew Rognlie) *Econometrica*, 89 (5) 2021: 2375-2408 \[[Working Paper](/file_url/106)\] \[[Slides](/file_url/117)\] \[[GitHub Repo](https://github.com/shade-econ/sequence-jacobian/#sequence-space-jacobian)\] \[[Replication Kit](/file_url/152)\] [**A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions**](/file_url/136) (with Sebastián Fanelli) *Review of Economic Studies*, 88 (6), 2021: 2857-2885 \[[Working Paper](/file_url/127)\] \[[Replication Kit](/file_url/125)\] [**Positive Long-Run Capital Taxation: Chamley-Judd Revisited**](/file_url/139) (with Iván Werning) *American Economic Review*, 110 (1), 2020: 86-119 \[[Working Paper](/file_url/100)\] \[[Replication Code](/file_url/124)\] [**Endogenous Second Moments: A Unified Approach to Fluctuations in Risk, Dispersion and Uncertainty**](/file_url/140) (with Robert Ulbricht) *Journal of Economic Theory*, 183, 2019: 625-660 [**Imperfect Public Monitoring with a Fear of Signal Distortion**](/file_url/141) (with Vivek Bhattacharya and Lucas Manuelli) *Journal of Economic Theory*, 175, 2018: 1-37